Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.863798 2.164726 2.497761 2.893544 3.351009 3.863119 4.479929
2026-02-08 1.308401 1.688344 2.153582 2.764708 3.546113 4.511727 5.796027
2026-02-15 1.005499 1.414377 1.958218 2.733456 3.809588 5.250459 7.327224
2026-02-22 0.844241 1.276869 1.893661 2.835250 4.235238 6.239389 9.327970
2026-03-01 0.698041 1.124703 1.770901 2.817979 4.470485 6.977243 11.070745
2026-03-08 0.582822 0.993735 1.650613 2.773156 4.641404 7.625234 12.754999
2026-03-15 0.502356 0.901743 1.572268 2.774768 4.874677 8.388318 14.716149
2026-03-22 0.472745 0.889286 1.620501 2.990627 5.489987 9.852208 18.045775
2026-03-29 0.424577 0.834742 1.585646 3.051947 5.838731 10.899034 20.786238
2026-04-05 0.383089 0.785181 1.550986 3.105575 6.176207 11.962910 23.695373
2026-04-12 0.340767 0.726705 1.489943 3.097636 6.391605 12.821986 26.325074
2026-04-19 0.301256 0.667316 1.417778 3.055375 6.529976 13.544900 28.776288
2026-04-26 0.252894 0.582840 1.285139 2.875072 6.373533 13.687844 30.130618
2026-05-03 0.218757 0.524074 1.198204 2.780132 6.386572 14.187487 32.326694
2026-05-10 0.195127 0.485209 1.148657 2.760128 6.560996 15.054843 35.454765
2026-05-17 0.183093 0.471691 1.154182 2.867011 7.039250 16.655132 40.467691
2026-05-24 0.164784 0.439543 1.110974 2.850967 7.225309 17.616025 44.129394
2026-05-31 0.147187 0.406129 1.059435 2.806109 7.334031 18.409446 47.502833
2026-06-07 0.134130 0.382391 1.028312 2.807908 7.559339 19.513482 51.803647
2026-06-14 0.132450 0.389331 1.077198 3.026368 8.376051 22.193961 60.502987
2026-06-21 0.123843 0.375343 1.068461 3.088433 8.787155 23.897742 66.892108
2026-06-28 0.115706 0.361322 1.057499 3.142701 9.185355 25.622243 73.586487
2026-07-05 0.106083 0.341198 1.026337 3.134671 9.408034 26.907020 79.255991